Feinberg Forecast: Post ‘Spider-Man’ and Shortlists, Oscar Projections for All 23 Categories

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PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Belfast
(Focus, Nov. 12, trailer) AFI*, CCA, HFPA, NBR
The Power of the Dog (Netflix, Nov. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
West Side Story (Disney, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
King Richard (Warner Bros., Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Licorice Pizza (MGM/UA, Nov. 26, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Tick, Tick… Boom!
(Netflix, Nov. 19, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Dune
 (Warner Bros., Oct. 22, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
CODA (Apple, Aug. 13, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA
Don’t Look Up (Netflix, Dec. 10, trailer) AFI, CCA, HFPA, NBR
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony, Dec. 17, trailer)

Possibilities
The Lost Daughter (Netflix, Dec. 17, trailer) FI, IFP
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, Dec. 10, trailer)
C’mon C’mon (A24, Nov. 19, trailer) FI
A Hero (Amazon, Nov. 12, trailer)
Summer of Soul (Searchlight, July 2, trailer)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight, Dec. 17, trailer) AFI, CCA, NBR
House of Gucci (MGM/UA, Nov. 24, trailer)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple, Dec. 25, trailer) AFI, NBR
Drive My Car (Sideshow/Janus, Nov. 24, trailer) LAFCA, NYFCC

Longer Shots
The Hand of God (Netflix, Dec. 3, trailer)
Flee (Neon/Participant, Dec. 3, trailer)
Cyrano
(MGM/UA, Dec. 31, trailer) HFPA
Red Rocket
(A24, Dec. 10, trailer) NBR
Parallel Mothers
 (Sony Classics, Dec. 24, trailer)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix, Oct. 22, trailer)
The Last Duel (Fox, Oct. 15, trailer) NBR
Spencer (Neon, Nov. 5, trailer)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Kenneth Branagh (BelfastCCA, HFPA
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Denis Villeneuve (DuneCCA, HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) CCA, NBR

Possibilities
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero) — podcast
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter) FI, HFPA, IFP
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley) — podcast CCA
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon) FI
Paolo Sorrentino (The Hand of God)

Longer Shots
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Lin-Manuel Miranda (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast
Aaron Sorkin (Being the Ricardos) — podcast
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci) — podcast
Pedro Almodóvar (Parallel Mothers) — podcast
Jon Watts (Spider-Man: No Way Home)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Jude Hill (Belfast)

Possibilities
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Simon Rex (Red Rocket) — podcast FI, IFP, LAFCA
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) HFPA
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Nicolas Cage (Pig) — podcast CCA
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey) FI
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) HFPA

Longer Shots
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) HFPA
Ansel Elgort (West Side Story)
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) — podcast HFPA
Adam Driver (House of Gucci) — podcast
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter) — podcast IFP
Anthony Ramos (In the Heights) HFPA
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Tom Holland (Spider-Man: No Way Home)
Frankie Faison (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain) FI, IFP

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) — podcast CCA, HFPA, IFP
Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) HFPA, NBR

Possibilities
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) LAFCA
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) CCA, HFPA
Emilia Jones (CODA)
Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Jennifer Hudson (Respect)
Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)

Longer Shots
Tessa Thompson (Passing) IFP
Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up) — podcast HFPA
Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
Halle Berry (Bruised) — podcast
Haley Bennett (Cyrano)
Marion Cotillard (Annette) HFPA
Isabelle Fuhrman (The Novice) FI

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA, NYFCC
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
Troy Kotsur (CODA) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP

Possibilities
Jared Leto (House of Gucci) — podcast CCA
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) CCA
Mike Faist (West Side Story)
Woody Norman (C’mon C’mon)
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) — podcast HFPA
Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick… Boom!)

Longer Shots
Jonah Hill (Don’t Look Up)
David Alvarez (West Side Story)
Jon Bernthal (King Richard)
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza)
Colman Domingo (Zola) FI, IFP

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) CCA, HFPA
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) — podcast CCA, HFPA, NBR
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) CCA, HFPA
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) CCA, HFPA, LAFCA
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) — podcast CCA

Possibilities
Judi Dench (Belfast) — podcast
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) FI, IFP
Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon) IFP
Nina Arianda (Being the Ricardos)

Longer Shots
Ruth Negga (Passing) — podcast FI, HFPA, IFP
Saniyya Sidney (King Richard)
Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth) NYFCC
Ann Dowd (Mass) CCA
Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) — podcast
Marlee Matlin (CODA) IFP

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) CCA, HFPA
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) CCA, FI, IFP
West Side Story (Tony Kushner) CCA
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve) CCA
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe) LAFCA

Possibilities
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Steven Levenson)
CODA (Sian Heder) CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) NBR
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan) — podcast (del Toro)
Passing (Rebecca Hall) IFP
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Chris McKenna and Erik Sommers)

Longer Shots
House of Gucci
(Roberto Bentivegna & Becky Johnston)
The Tender Bar (William Monahan)
In the Heights (Quiara Alegría Hudes)
Cyrano (Erica Schmidt)
The Many Saints of Newark (David Chase & Lawrence Konner) — podcast (Chase)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) CCA, HFPA
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) CCA, HFPA, NYFCC
King Richard (Zach Baylin) CCA
Being the Ricardos (Aaron Sorkin) — podcast CCA, HFPA
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay & David Sirota) — podcast (McKay) CCA, HFPA

Possibilities
A Hero (Asghar Farhadi) — podcast NBR
C’mon Cmon
(Mike Mills) FI
The Hand of God (Paolo Sorrentino)
Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodóvar) — podcast
The Card Counter (Paul Schrader) IFP
Last Night in Soho (Krysty Wilson-Cairns & Edgar Wright)

Longer Shots
Spencer (Steven Knight)
Red Rocket
(Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch) — podcast (Baker) IFP
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel & Boaz Yakin)
The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola & Jason Schwartzman)
Zola (Janicza Bravo & Jeremy O. Harris) FI
Stillwater
(Tom McCarthy) — podcast

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Summer of Soul (Searchlight) AFI*, CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, LAFCA, NBR, PGA
Flee
(Neon/Participant) CCA, CEH, FI, IDA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC, PGA
Attica (Showtime) CCA, NBR
Ascension (MTV) CCA, CEH, FI, IFP, NBR, PGA
The Rescue
(Nat Geo) CCA, CEH, NBR, PGA

Possibilities
The Velvet Underground
(Apple) — podcast (Todd Haynes) CEH
The First Wave (Neon) — podcast (Matthew Heineman) PGA
Simple As Water (HBO) PGA
Procession (Netflix) CCA, FI
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple)

Longer Shots
In the Same Breath
 (HBO) FI, IDA, PGA
Writing with Fire (Music Box) IDA, PGA
Faya Dayi (Janus Films) CEH, IDA, IFP
President (Greenwich) IFP
Julia (Sony Classics)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
A Hero (Iran) — podcast (Asghar Farhadi) CCA, HFPA, NBR
Drive My Car (Japan) CCA, FI, HFPA, IFP
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) CCA, IFP, NBR, NYFCC
Flee (Denmark) CCA
The Hand of God (Italy) CCA, HFPA

Possibilities
Compartment No. 6 (Finland) FI, HFPA
Playground (Belgium)
I’m Your Man (Germany)
Lamb (Iceland) NBR
The Good Boss (Spain)

Longer Shots
Hive
(Kosovo)
Great Freedom
(Austria)
Plaza Catedral
(Panama)
Prayers for the Stolen
 (Mexico) FI
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*

Frontrunners
Dune (Greig Fraser) CCA, CI
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski) CCA, NYFCC
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner) CCA, LAFCA
Belfast (Haris Zambarloukos) CCA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel) CCA, CI, NBR

Possibilities
C’mon C’mon (Robbie Ryan) CI
Nightmare Alley (Dan Lausten) CCA
Passing (Edu Grau) FI
Spider-Man: No Way Home
(Mauro Fiore)
King Richard
(Robert Elswit)
Cyrano (Seamus McGarvey)
Titane (Ruben Impens)
Drive My Car (Hidetoshi Shinomiya)
No Time to Die (Linus Sandgren)
Spencer (Claire Mithon)

Longer Shots
Being the Ricardos (Jeff Cronenweth)
Don’t Look Up (Linus Sandgren)
Last Night in Soho (Chung-hoon Chung)
The French Dispatch (Robert Yeoman)
The Last Duel
 (Dariusz Wolski)
House of Gucci
(Dariusz Wolski)
Licorice Pizza
(Paul Thomas Anderson & Michael Bauman)
The Harder They Fall
(Mihai Malaimare Jr.)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Alice Brooks)

*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Dune (Jacqueline West) CCA
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell) CCA
Cruella (Jenny Beavan) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira) CCA
The French Dispatch (Milena Canonero)

Possibilities
Licorice Pizza
(Mark Bridges)
House of Gucci
(Janty Yates) CCA
Spencer (Jacqueline Durran)
Last Night in Soho
(Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Cyrano
 (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
Belfast
 (Charlotte Walker)
The Power of the Dog
(Kirsty Cameron)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Mary Zophres)
Coming 2 America (Ruth E. Carter)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sanja Milkovic Hays)

Longer Shots
Mothering Sunday (Sandy Powell)
The Harder They Fall
(Antoinette Messam)
The Last Duel
 (Janty Yates)
Eternals
(Sammy Sheldon Differ)
King Richard
(Sharen Davis)
Being the Ricardos
 (Susan Lyall)
Passing (Marci Rodgers)
Respect (Clint Ramos)
Annette (Pascaline Chavanne)

*BEST FILM EDITING*

Frontrunners
Dune (Joe Walker) CCA
Belfast (Una Ni Dhonghaile) CCA
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras) CCA
West Side Story (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn) CCA
Summer of Soul (Joshua L. Pearson) LAFCA

Possibilities
King Richard
(Pamela Martin)
Licorice Pizza
(Andy Jurgensen)
Spider-Man: No Way Home
(Leigh Folsom & Jeffrey Ford)
No Time to Die
(Tom Cross & Elliot Graham)
Being the Ricardos (Alan Baumgarten) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Cam McLaughlin)
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum)

Longer Shots
The Harder They Fall (Tom Eagles)
C’mon C’mon
(Jennifer Vecchiarello)
The Lost Daughter
(Affonso Gonçalves)
CODA
 (Geraud Brisson)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen & Lucian Johnston)
Eternals (Dylan Tichenor & Craig Wood)

*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Dune CCA
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story
Cruella
CCA
House of Gucci
 CCA

Possibilities
The Eyes of Tammy Faye CCA
Nightmare Alley CCA
No Time to Die
Cyrano
Coming 2 America

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
Dune (Hans Zimmer) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
The French Dispatch
 (Alexandre Desplat) HFPA, HMMA
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell) CCA, HMMA
King Richard (Kris Bowers) HMMA

Possibilities
Spencer
(Jonny Greenwood) CCA
Parallel Mothers
(Alberto Iglesias) HFPA, HMMA, LAFCA
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Michael Giacchino)
The Harder They Fall (Jeymes Samuel)
The Last Duel
(Harry Gregson-Williams) HMMA
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Carter Burwell) HMMA

Longer Shots
Encanto (Germaine Franco) HFPA
Being the Ricardos (Daniel Pemberton)
No Time to Die (Hans Zimmer) HMMA
The Green Knight (Daniel Hart)
Candyman (Robert A.A. Lowe)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“No Time to Die” — Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die) — podcast CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“So May We Start” — Ron Mael & Russell Mael (Annette)
“Guns Go Bang” — Jay-Z, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Jeymes Samuel (The Harder They Fall) CCA, HMMA
“Be Alive” — Beyoncé Knowles-Carter & Darius Scott (King Richard) CCA, HFPA, HMMA
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” — Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson & Carole King (Respect) HFPA, HMMA

Possibilities
“Just Look Up” — Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi [Kid Cudi] & Taura Stinson (Don’t Look Up) CCA, HMMA
“Automatic Woman” — H.E.R., Van Hun & Starrah (Bruised) — podcast
“Down to Joy” — Van Morrison (Belfast) HFPA, HMMA
“Dos Oruguitas” — Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto) — podcast CCA, HFPA
“Your Song Saved My Life” — Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr. (Sing 2) HMMA

Longer Shots
“The Anonymous Ones” — Benj Pasek, Justin Paul & Amandla Stenberg (Dear Evan Hansen)
“Somehow You Do” — Diane Warren (Four Good Days) — podcast HMMA
“Dream Girl” — Idina Menzel & Laura Veltz (Cinderella)
“Right Where I Belong” — Brian Wilson & Jim James (Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road) HMMA
“Beyond the Shore” — Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder & Marius de Vries (CODA) HMMA

*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*

Frontrunners
Dune
(Zsuzsanna Sipos & Patrice Vermette) CCA
West Side Story (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Belfast
(Jim Clay & Claire Nina Richards) CCA
The French Dispatch (Rena DeAngelo & Adam Stockhausen) CCA
Nightmare Alley (Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau) CCA

Possibilities
Cyrano
(Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
The Power of the Dog
(Grant Major & Amber Richards)
Licorice Pizza
(Florencia Martin & Ryan Watson)
The Tragedy of Macbeth
(Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh)
Spider-Man: No Way Home
(Sam Avila & Darren Gilford)
Being the Ricardos
(Ellen Brill & Jon Hutman)
Spencer
(Gu Hendrix-Dyas & Yesim Zolan)
Last Night in Soho
(Victoria Allwood, Judy Farr & Emily Norris)
Tick, Tick… Boom! (Nola Denett & Alex DiGerlando)
The Harder They Fall (Jay Hart, Cynthia La Jeunesse, Martin Whist & Anthony Whitman)

Longer Shots
Eternals
(Maya Henson, Michael Standish & Eve Stewart)
Cruella
(Fiona Crumbie & Alice Felton)
Don’t Look Up
 (Clayton Hartley & Tara Pavoni)
House of Gucci
(Arthur Max & Letizia Santucci)
The Last Duel
 (Judy Farr & Arthur Max)
Passing
(Nora Mendis & Paige Mitchell)
A Quiet Place Part II
(Michael Joseph Amato, Jess Gonchor & Nancy Haigh)
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
 (Steve Saklad) LAFCA
Annette
(Marion Michel & Florian Sanson)

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
Dune
No Time to Die
West Side Story
Belfast
Spider-Man: No Way Home

Possibilities
Tick, Tick… Boom!
A Quiet Place Part II
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Dune CCA
No Time to Die
CCA
Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Matrix Resurrections
CCA
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
CCA

Possibilities
Eternals
Black Widow
Godzilla vs. Kong
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Free Guy

*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*

Shortlist
Affairs of the Art
Angakusajaujug The Shaman’s Apprentice
Bad Seeds
Bestia
Boxballet
Flowing Home
Mum Is Pouring Rain
The Musician
Namoo
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Step into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper

*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*

Shortlist
Águilas
Audible
A Broken House
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker
Day of Rage
The Facility
Lead Me Home
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
The Queen of Basketball
Sophie & the Baron
Takeover
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies

*BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT*

Shortlist
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
Censor of Dreams
The Criminals
Distances
The Dress
Frimas
Les Grandes Claques
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Stenofonen
Tala’vision
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets
You’re Dead Helen

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